(1) Detroit vs. (8) Nashville
It's interesting to note how many people seem to be writing the President's Trophy winners off this post-season. Could it be because they have finished first overall three of the past four seasons, but have yet to win the Cup or even make it to the final in any of those seasons? (The year they didn't capture it, they finished tied with Buffalo but the Sabres won it because they had more wins). Could it be because they faltered down the stretch, while San Jose picked up the momentum in the west and appeared to be its top team? Could it be some concerns over
injuries? It's a combination of all those factors of course. We seem to fall in love with the hottest team at the moment and forget who did what during the first half of the season. Facing some of the adversity that the Wings did face might have been the best thing for this team.Nashville deserves a ton of credit for getting into the playoffs, as I've mentioned before. Everyone wrote them off, but with some solid goaltender from Dan Ellis (seriously, Dan Ellis? Yeah, Dan Ellis), a strong and developing blueline, depth up front with some vets (Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont) and young emerging stars like Alexander Radulov the Predators have been competitive and hard working every night because of Barry Trotz and his staff. Although Trotz may not receive any, he certainly deserves a lot of credit for keeping this team competitive while losing a large chunk of his team amidst a terrible ownership mess.
Having said all that, the Wings are too talented, too good in their own end and in net for the Preds to have any hope in this series. Nashville is the type of team that has the ability to make it interesting, but don't expect any Edmonton of 2006 run from this club.
Wings in 5.
(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary
Will this finally be the year that San Jose overcomes their playoff failures and takes the next step? That's certainly one of the most intriguing stories of this year's playoffs. Evgeni Nabokov has been sensational this season carrying the load for the Sharks now that he is the confirmed number one goalie after Vesa Toskala was traded to the Leafs (his 77 starts are a testament to such status). The Sharks shored up on defense with the addition of Brian Campbell at the deadline. There's no doubt Campbell has turned the Sharks blueline into one of the strongest from 1 to 6 in the NHL. Joe Thornton is one of the NHL's top five players, as he has been for the past five years. He is their real leader. Forget Patrick Marleau's 'C' on the front of his jersey, Thornton is the unofficial captain of this team and has been since he was acquired from Boston.
The Sharks finished the season 18-4 (the last two losses coming in their final two games with nothing to play for really, the first two wins coming before the Campbell trade).
Calgary meanwhile, have been a .500 team the last 2 months of the season. They had been wildy inconsistent leading up to that point. They won just 4 games in November and lost only 5 in December (3 of those coming in overtime). Mikka Kiprusoff is a big reason for their inconsistency. The usually solid as a rock Finnish netminder has been up and down all season and it doesn't seem like he can be counted on to steal games night in and night out like he has done in recent years. The Flames need him to be that goalie who steals 4 games from the Sharks in order to win this series. That's unlikely right now.
The Sharks are on some kind of roll and deserve a lot of the hype they are receiving as the playoffs approach. One major concern is where the offense will come from beyond Thornton. Big Joe seems to lead the team in every offensive category (even goals, which says more about the Sharks than it does Thornton who is and will always be a great playmaker, but not a dynamic goal scorer). Jonathan Cheechoo isn't anywhere near his Richard Trophy winning self and probably never will be again. Milan Michalek is a reliable winger, but will never be confused with Alex Ovechkin. Joe Pavelski has been a pleasant surprise, but isn't the kind of player who will put up big numbers. That leaves Marleau, who could be the key to the Sharks success. His 19 goals this season were his lowest total since 99-00 and his -19 is unacceptable on a team that won more games than anyone in the league except for Detroit. Having said all that, the Flames aren't much deeper. Outside of their top line (led by Jarome Iginla) they lack punch.
Though I'm not as high on the Sharks as everyone else seems to be, they are still a team that can win a playoff round (or two or even three). They have more than enough to get by Calgary.
Sharks in 5.
(3) Minnesota vs. (6) Colorado
This is an awfully tough series to predict. It's the Devils-Rangers series of the west for me, except much more exciting. Colorado has some star power (even if some of those stars are well past their prime) and Minnesota can put the puck in the net better than any other time in their history. They can score - though not like some of the more elite teams in the NHL - and still play a strong defensive system under Jacques Lemaire. Marian Gaborik is coming off a career best 42 goals and yet still seems to get overlooked as being an elite goal scorer. Brian Rolston scored 30 for the third straight season and is wildly underrated. They have depth at forward to go with Gaborik and Rolston with P.M. Bouchard, Pavol Demitra and Mikko Koivu.
Colorado might be even deeper at forward. Paul Stastny is a star already and seems to do everything well. Milan Hejduk probably won't score 50 goals again, but can be counted on for some key goals. Joe Sakic played just half the season because of injury but is still one of the best players to ever play the game. This was the first season since 97-98 that Joe didn't average a point a game, but you can never count a player of his caliber out. He's done everything during his hockey career (I actually can't think of one thing he hasn't done - 2 Cup rings, a Conn Smythe, a Hart Tropy, an Olympic gold) and will have something to say in this series. Ryan Smyth plays
some of the ugliest hockey in the world, but is hard not to love. Peter Forsberg is a total wild card. His 14 points since signing with the Avs have been impressive to say the least, he gives the Avs quite an edge if he's healthy and playing well. Foppa (if healthy) and their proven playoff performers gives the Avs the edge offensively.Both teams are solid in net. Nicklas Backstrom didn't have the type of season he did the year before, but plays a very steady game. Minnesota's improved offense has something to do with that while they haven't focussed on defense the same way they used to. Jose Theodore has been a complete shock to everyone in Colorado, even himself I'm sure. Can you say contract year? When he's focussed the way he is now, he can be fantastic. I'd still rather have Backstrom because I know exactly what I'm getting, but Theodore has the ability to steal a game if he's playing like his old self (or new self, as long as he doesn't play like his in between self).
Minnesota has the better blueline, but without Nick Schultz (lost to injury because of an emergency appendectomy) the Wild aren't the same defensively. Schultz doesn't put up points, but he is very responsible in his own end, extremely valuable on the penalty kill and simply one of the more reliable stay at home defenseman in the league. He helped turn Brent Burns into a terrific offensive defenseman and he will be missed by both the Wild and Burns. Colorado is okay on defense. Scott Hannan is solid. John-Michael Liles can provide some offense and is playing for a contract. For an offensive d-man, Jordan Leopold doesn't seem to put up many points. His career high 33 in 03-04 haven't been closed to matched while in the middle of two injury plagued seasons. Adam Foote helps the team immensely. He lightens the load for Hannan and allows Liles to create more offensively. Minnesota might have the better blueline, but the loss of Schultz can't be underestimated.
I keep going back and forth, but ultimately I have to go with Colorado. It's hard to go against names like Sakic, Forsberg, Stastny, Smyth, Foote and Hejduk. I wrote in the Wild at first, then erased it and took the Avs. Then went back to the Wild, but I'm settling on Colorado once and for all.
Wi....errr, Avs in 7 (seriously this time, Colorado.)
(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Dallas
The quest to repeat begins and Anaheim has a very good chance to do so. On paper, they have almost exactly the same team, but better. Their two "retired" leaders came out of "retirement" (I'm convinced they knew they were coming back, but just wanted some time off). Their two young studs (Getzlaf and Perry) are older and better (though Perry likely won't play in this series). They do have Selanne back (and playing well) and their insurance signing of Todd Bertuzzi hasn't turned out to be anything special, but he has shown streaks of his old self. Doug Weight as a number 2 centre is a concern, but they have other centreman (Todd Marchant, Ryan Carter, Sami Pahlsson) who can help out. They don't score a ton of goals, but they are built for playoff hockey and can grind it out and score as many as necessary in the big games. The combination of Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer and Travis Moen are maybe the best checking unit in the league. They will give the Stars' forward fits.
Dallas has a lot depth up front. Modano is in the twilight of his career, but isn't counted on by the team the way he once was. Brad Richards is simply the most overpaid player in the league, but that's not his fault. He's a nice player and a guy who is a proven playoff performer, but after his remarkable 5 point debut with Dallas, he hasn't seemed to fit in. The Stars have juggled him between centre and the wing and have tried numerous line combinations, but can't bring out the best in him since that first game. Mike Ribeiro has busted out of nowhere, but needs to prove himself over a longer period of time, especially during the playoffs - a time where he has done very little (8 points in 24 games). Brendan Morrow is as committed and hard working a player you will find and has quite a scoring touch for such a player. Niklas Hagman and Jere Lehtinen are both very responsible two ways wingers, who can score a bit too.
Both teams are strong in net. J.S. Giguere might be the second best playoff goalie in the league. He single handedly got the Ducks to the final in 2003 and could have won the Conn Smythe again last year. In 45 career playoff games, Giguere has a 1.95 GAA, a .929 save percentage and 6 shutouts. Not the same can be said for Marty Turco, though he did a lot to prove his critics wrong in the Stars seven game series loss to the Canucks last year. He was terrible the previous two playoffs before last year and has a career 11-18 record. They are very different goalies this time of year and Giguere has the clear edge.
No one in the NHL can match Anaheim's blueline. They have two of the top three defenseman of the past 10 years. Both are sure fire hall of famers and two of the best to ever play defense. Those of course would be Joe DiPenta and Kent Huskins. Come on, we all know who they are. Mathieu Schneider has added an entirely different element to the team as well. A third offensive threat on the blueline, who can step in on the powerplay whenever needed. This is a much bigger question mark for Dallas. Sergei Zubov is out indefinitely after sports hernia surgery. He's their anchor at both ends of the ice and when losing him you are asking a lot of some of their younger d-men in Matt Niskanen and Niklas Grossman. Niskanen has been very good in his absence but asking him and Mattias Norstrom and company to contain Anaheim's big group of forwards.
Anaheim shouldn't have much trouble with Dallas as they try to become the first team since Detroit to win back to back cups and there's a very good chance of that happening.
Ducks in 5.
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