Saturday, May 24, 2008

Let's get this show on the road

After five days of sitting around and dissecting this series to death, the Stanley Cup final finally begins tonight. The most ridiculous pieces of news have become headlines: Gary Roberts unhappy about sitting.

Seriously? First of all, who cares. As much as I like Roberts it's quite clear that the Penguins can win without him. They got by the Flyers without him and did just fine during the regular season when he was injured.

Secondly, is it really surprising that a guy wants to play in the finals when he's been relegated to the press box? Not at all. It's just an example that the NHL needs to push up the games if the conference finals end early. Thursday would have been perfect to kick things off.

This matchup has been analyzed and broken down to death by now. We know the Red Wings are a very solid team from top to bottom. Managed well, coached well and generally solid in every facet of the game on the ice. We know that the Penguins have an insane amount of young talent, led by two super stars. All of the cliches have been busting out from every media source.

Some over the top comparisons have been made to the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers of the 1980's. I know earlier I stated the Penguins would march to the finals only to lose it to a more experienced team the same way the Oilers did, but to go to the extent some people have been going to is ridiculous. There are certainly some similarities, don't get me wrong. Where I used it to simply prove a point, people are using it as a direct comparison. The Red Wings run over the past 15 years has been impressive, but they never won 4 straight Stanley Cups. They have been the league's top team year in and year out more than any other over a stretch of time, but they have by no means dominated the NHL year after year.

On the Pittsburgh side, some more relevant comparisons can be made to the Oilers. They have two superstars (Gretzky and Messier: Crosby and Malkin), a young flashy goaltender (Fuhr: Fleury) and a very solid supporting cast, if you can call them that because some Oilers are hall of famers (Anderson, Kurri, Coffey, Lowe: Hossa, Malone, Gonchar, Whitney). The one difference between the two teams is that the Oilers suffered three straight years of post-season defeats before hoisting the Cup. The Penguins rise to prominence has been much faster with fewer bumps in the road. There was no "Miracle on Manchester" to crush their spirits, but ultimately make them a better team. Sure, the first round exit to the Senators last year was no fun, but certainly was expected.

Ultimately, we can't get ahead of ourselves when making these comparisons. Let the series play out, let time go by and then compare. Let's just enjoy this series for the fantastic hockey we hope to see. Sidney is not Wayne nor will he ever be. Let Sidney be Sidney and Wayne live forever in our memories as the great player he was without waiting for "The Next One".

I suppose sooner or later I should get to the actual hockey talk. These two teams were the NHL's "dream" matchup and mine too. There is plenty of skill and star power to go around and it should be a blast to see them provide a great show. I just worry that we've built this series up so much that it will disappoint in the end if it's not the best hockey we've ever seen. But because of all the speed and skill, I think the defence will play a huge role in determining this series based on who contains who more effectively. Though the Penguins blueline has been very solid and largely unheralded throughout the playoffs, Detroit certainly has an edge in that department. Nick Lidstrom will do that. Let's not forget how important team defence is and the Red Wings have the best group of two-way forwards in the league, led by Zetterberg and Datsyuk (two Selke nominees) as well as Draper (a former Selke winner), Franzen (when healthy), Cleary and Maltby to shut their opponents down.

If the series is half as entertaining as it's been hyped then we should be in for a treat. Expect it to go deep and expect the Red Wings to narrowly come out on top in seven games.

Okay, enough talk. Let's just drop the damn puck already!

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Round 3 thoughts and predictions

Two out of four is less than impressive, I will admit. I'm 7-5 for the playoffs, but if I get the conference finals and the Stanley Cup final right, I'll be 10 out of 15 which isn't terrible. On to more predicting.

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Philadelphia

It's not the battle of Ontario, but it's still an intriguing cross-state (or cross province) battle nonetheless. Pittsburgh nearly swept the Rangers, but that series was much closer than the final series outcome showed. New York seemed to have game one wrapped up half way through the contest, but the Penguins erased a 3-0 deficit and came all the way back to beat New York 5-4. The Rangers were in all of the remaining 4 games of the series (obviously game 4 because they won it) but that game one loss seemed to deflate them. It appeared at one point that the Penguins were going to take an 8 game playoff winning streak into the conference finals, but New York wasn't going to let that happen.

Pittsburgh has looked nearly unbeatable throughout the playoffs. They have no problems scoring or creating offense and look deadly with a man advantage. Marc-Andre Fleury is playing the best hockey of his NHL career right now and yes, it's definitely because he's not wearing the yellow pads anymore. In game two of the series against New York, the Penguins showed they can play an effective shutdown defensive game when needed. They are a dangerous team right now.

So is Philly, but not in the same vein. Martin Biron stole probably two games from the Habs in the previous series. He will certainly have to do that again in this series. R.J. Umberger was a beast against Montreal. Daniel Briere has been very good as have the bulk of the Flyers' forwards. The Flyers have a pretty unique blend of skill and grit. They've knocked off two teams I figured would beat them, so they certainly have a chance in this series.

Interesting stat: In 20 career games against the Flyers, Sidney Crosby has 16 goals and 37 points - the most against any NHL team in both categories.

Pittsburgh is on a roll right now. Hossa and Crosby are clicking just at the right time. Everything seems to be coming into place and this should be a very interesting series.

Pittsburgh in 6.

(1) Detroit vs. (5) Dallas

I think we can officially start calling the Stars "giant killers". They knock off the defending champs (my pick to win the Cup) and the consensus Stanley Cup winner. They exposed both the Ducks and Sharks for their weaknesses. Will they do the same with the Red Wings? They have people thinking about it long and hard, that's for sure.

The 2008 playoffs have exposed Brenden Morrow for the great leader and excellent player that he is. He's a guy that seems to fly under the radar because of the presence of Mike Modano and the emerging play Mike Ribeiro, then acquisition of Brad Richards. But Morrow has been their best forward all season and showed why against San Jose. He's becoming an elite power forward with the exceptional combination of size, toughness and soft hands. Although Turco has been the Stars MVP thus far, Morrow deserves plenty of credit for guiding Dallas to a place few figured they would be, the conference finals.

Marty Turco sure proved me and the rest of the hockey world wrong with a spectacular performance against San Jose, capped by incredible game 6 quadruple over win. There's no way Dallas wins that game without Turco and you can't like their chances going back to San Jose for a game 7 after the Sharks reel off three wins.

Sergei Zubov has come back from injury and provided plenty of stability along the blueline in Dallas. He's not 100 percent healthy right now, but has given the team a significant boost.

The scare for the Red Wings against Nashville (if you can call it that) seems to have really motivated this team. After losing games 3 and 4 in Nashville, they won 6 straight games. Games 1 and 3 against Colorado were close, but 2 and 4 were never a contest. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are playing up to expectations. Chris Osgood has been nearly perfect in net. Nicklas Lidstrom is still the best defenceman in the league and that's not going to change over night. They are well coached and all of their forwards are strong two way players. Both Zetterberg and Datsyuk are two of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, a testament to their play and Detroit's emphasis on defence from every player.

And then there's Johan Franzen. The "Big Swede" (sorry Mats, but I'm renting out the nickname for the time being) set a franchise record for most goals in a playoff series with 9. The previous record was held by Gordie Howe who scored 8 in a seven game series - Johan did that in just four! There's no way Franzen can keep up this rate of 2+ goals per game, but he certainly has Dallas thinking of ways to contain him. It's that depth at forward that will take the pressure off Zetterberg and Datsyuk that can help make a difference in a series.

I've gone against the Stars in the first two rounds. Will I go against them again? Have I learned anything? The respective answers are yes and, well maybe, no.

Red Wings in 7.

Ladouceur fired!!!

Oh yeah and that other guy was fired too.

I awoke from my slumber this morning to call one of my colleagues on an unrelated topic without checking the old interweb. He informed me that Paul Maurice has been fired. Sorry, what?! Paul Maurice? The coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs? Yes, that Paul Maurice. MLSE sure has a strange sense of timing.

It's not a huge surprise that Maurice has been fired, but it's more the timing of it than anything that's so surprising. If you were firing the head coach, then why not do it at the end of the season or when the new GM is named later on this summer?

It's all very fishy and it makes me think that something else is up over at MLSE. Something like the hiring of the aforementioned new general manager. It makes sense to fire the head coach so the incoming general manager has the coach of his choice. While I'm not of the opinion that Maurice did a horrible job, it's probably the best move to release him and bring in someone new. He didn't have much of anything to work with, but he didn't appear to make the team he had any better. Essentially the job of any head coach is to get the most out of his players and while there wasn't really much to get out of the players he was given, he failed to push this team any further.

The new general manager won't be comfortable with an incumbent head coach so this is the best decision, but the timing is very strange. Why not name the GM and allow him to make the decision? Should we be all that surprised by anything MLSE does? Well, not really. They certainly stole a lot of the thunder of the Stanley Cup playoffs, especially on a slow news day with the conference finals not beginning until tomorrow.

Speaking of the conference finals, my thoughts and predictions are up next. Stay tuned.