'08-'09 Predictions

Eastern Conference Points

1. Montreal Canadiens 108
2. Pittsburgh Penguins 106
3. Washington Capitals 99
4. Philadelphia Flyers 102
5. New Jersey Devils 98
6. Ottawa Senators 95
7. New York Rangers 94
8. Carolina Hurricanes 92
9. Tampa Bay Lightning 90
10. Buffalo Sabres 90
11. Boston Bruins 87
12. Florida Panthers 84
13. Atlanta Thrashers 76
14. Toronto Maple Leafs 72
15. New York Islanders 70

Western Conference Points

1. Detroit Red Wings 113
2. Dallas Stars 107
3. Edmonton Oilers 97
4. San Jose Sharks 102
5. Anaheim Ducks 100
6. Minnesota Wild 93
7. Calgary Flames 92
8. Phoenix Coyotes 91
9. Chicago Blackhawks 90
10. Vancouver Canucks 86
11. Colorado Avalanche 85
12. Columbus Blue Jackets 83
13. Nashville Predators 80
14. St. Louis Blues 77
15. Los Angeles Kings 71

Awards
Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Art Ross: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Richard: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Vezina: Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Norris: Dion Phaneuf, Calgary Flames
Adams: Craig MacTavish, Edmonton Oilers
Calder: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
Selke: Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit Red Wings

Playoffs
Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh over Montreal
Western Conference
Dallas over Detroit
Stanley Cup Final
Dallas over Pittsburgh

RIP

Bloggage Elsewhere

It's been some time since I've posted anything around these parts. Vacation and busy work schedule will do that to a blogger.

Let's just say the Stanley Cup finals were a bit of a disappointment and there wasn't much else to say about them anyways.

At any rate, I will be blogging throughout the off-season and beyond, I swear. Right now, I'm doing some stuff on FAN590.com for the NHL draft. I've written a preview of each team heading into the draft and will be live blogging the entire thing on Friday night. Check it out if you have the time and if there is anyone reading, comment if you have something to say. I strongly encourage it.

Let's get this show on the road

After five days of sitting around and dissecting this series to death, the Stanley Cup final finally begins tonight. The most ridiculous pieces of news have become headlines: Gary Roberts unhappy about sitting.

Seriously? First of all, who cares. As much as I like Roberts it's quite clear that the Penguins can win without him. They got by the Flyers without him and did just fine during the regular season when he was injured.

Secondly, is it really surprising that a guy wants to play in the finals when he's been relegated to the press box? Not at all. It's just an example that the NHL needs to push up the games if the conference finals end early. Thursday would have been perfect to kick things off.

This matchup has been analyzed and broken down to death by now. We know the Red Wings are a very solid team from top to bottom. Managed well, coached well and generally solid in every facet of the game on the ice. We know that the Penguins have an insane amount of young talent, led by two super stars. All of the cliches have been busting out from every media source.

Some over the top comparisons have been made to the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers of the 1980's. I know earlier I stated the Penguins would march to the finals only to lose it to a more experienced team the same way the Oilers did, but to go to the extent some people have been going to is ridiculous. There are certainly some similarities, don't get me wrong. Where I used it to simply prove a point, people are using it as a direct comparison. The Red Wings run over the past 15 years has been impressive, but they never won 4 straight Stanley Cups. They have been the league's top team year in and year out more than any other over a stretch of time, but they have by no means dominated the NHL year after year.

On the Pittsburgh side, some more relevant comparisons can be made to the Oilers. They have two superstars (Gretzky and Messier: Crosby and Malkin), a young flashy goaltender (Fuhr: Fleury) and a very solid supporting cast, if you can call them that because some Oilers are hall of famers (Anderson, Kurri, Coffey, Lowe: Hossa, Malone, Gonchar, Whitney). The one difference between the two teams is that the Oilers suffered three straight years of post-season defeats before hoisting the Cup. The Penguins rise to prominence has been much faster with fewer bumps in the road. There was no "Miracle on Manchester" to crush their spirits, but ultimately make them a better team. Sure, the first round exit to the Senators last year was no fun, but certainly was expected.

Ultimately, we can't get ahead of ourselves when making these comparisons. Let the series play out, let time go by and then compare. Let's just enjoy this series for the fantastic hockey we hope to see. Sidney is not Wayne nor will he ever be. Let Sidney be Sidney and Wayne live forever in our memories as the great player he was without waiting for "The Next One".

I suppose sooner or later I should get to the actual hockey talk. These two teams were the NHL's "dream" matchup and mine too. There is plenty of skill and star power to go around and it should be a blast to see them provide a great show. I just worry that we've built this series up so much that it will disappoint in the end if it's not the best hockey we've ever seen. But because of all the speed and skill, I think the defence will play a huge role in determining this series based on who contains who more effectively. Though the Penguins blueline has been very solid and largely unheralded throughout the playoffs, Detroit certainly has an edge in that department. Nick Lidstrom will do that. Let's not forget how important team defence is and the Red Wings have the best group of two-way forwards in the league, led by Zetterberg and Datsyuk (two Selke nominees) as well as Draper (a former Selke winner), Franzen (when healthy), Cleary and Maltby to shut their opponents down.

If the series is half as entertaining as it's been hyped then we should be in for a treat. Expect it to go deep and expect the Red Wings to narrowly come out on top in seven games.

Okay, enough talk. Let's just drop the damn puck already!

Round 3 thoughts and predictions

Two out of four is less than impressive, I will admit. I'm 7-5 for the playoffs, but if I get the conference finals and the Stanley Cup final right, I'll be 10 out of 15 which isn't terrible. On to more predicting.

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Philadelphia

It's not the battle of Ontario, but it's still an intriguing cross-state (or cross province) battle nonetheless. Pittsburgh nearly swept the Rangers, but that series was much closer than the final series outcome showed. New York seemed to have game one wrapped up half way through the contest, but the Penguins erased a 3-0 deficit and came all the way back to beat New York 5-4. The Rangers were in all of the remaining 4 games of the series (obviously game 4 because they won it) but that game one loss seemed to deflate them. It appeared at one point that the Penguins were going to take an 8 game playoff winning streak into the conference finals, but New York wasn't going to let that happen.

Pittsburgh has looked nearly unbeatable throughout the playoffs. They have no problems scoring or creating offense and look deadly with a man advantage. Marc-Andre Fleury is playing the best hockey of his NHL career right now and yes, it's definitely because he's not wearing the yellow pads anymore. In game two of the series against New York, the Penguins showed they can play an effective shutdown defensive game when needed. They are a dangerous team right now.

So is Philly, but not in the same vein. Martin Biron stole probably two games from the Habs in the previous series. He will certainly have to do that again in this series. R.J. Umberger was a beast against Montreal. Daniel Briere has been very good as have the bulk of the Flyers' forwards. The Flyers have a pretty unique blend of skill and grit. They've knocked off two teams I figured would beat them, so they certainly have a chance in this series.

Interesting stat: In 20 career games against the Flyers, Sidney Crosby has 16 goals and 37 points - the most against any NHL team in both categories.

Pittsburgh is on a roll right now. Hossa and Crosby are clicking just at the right time. Everything seems to be coming into place and this should be a very interesting series.

Pittsburgh in 6.

(1) Detroit vs. (5) Dallas

I think we can officially start calling the Stars "giant killers". They knock off the defending champs (my pick to win the Cup) and the consensus Stanley Cup winner. They exposed both the Ducks and Sharks for their weaknesses. Will they do the same with the Red Wings? They have people thinking about it long and hard, that's for sure.

The 2008 playoffs have exposed Brenden Morrow for the great leader and excellent player that he is. He's a guy that seems to fly under the radar because of the presence of Mike Modano and the emerging play Mike Ribeiro, then acquisition of Brad Richards. But Morrow has been their best forward all season and showed why against San Jose. He's becoming an elite power forward with the exceptional combination of size, toughness and soft hands. Although Turco has been the Stars MVP thus far, Morrow deserves plenty of credit for guiding Dallas to a place few figured they would be, the conference finals.

Marty Turco sure proved me and the rest of the hockey world wrong with a spectacular performance against San Jose, capped by incredible game 6 quadruple over win. There's no way Dallas wins that game without Turco and you can't like their chances going back to San Jose for a game 7 after the Sharks reel off three wins.

Sergei Zubov has come back from injury and provided plenty of stability along the blueline in Dallas. He's not 100 percent healthy right now, but has given the team a significant boost.

The scare for the Red Wings against Nashville (if you can call it that) seems to have really motivated this team. After losing games 3 and 4 in Nashville, they won 6 straight games. Games 1 and 3 against Colorado were close, but 2 and 4 were never a contest. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are playing up to expectations. Chris Osgood has been nearly perfect in net. Nicklas Lidstrom is still the best defenceman in the league and that's not going to change over night. They are well coached and all of their forwards are strong two way players. Both Zetterberg and Datsyuk are two of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, a testament to their play and Detroit's emphasis on defence from every player.

And then there's Johan Franzen. The "Big Swede" (sorry Mats, but I'm renting out the nickname for the time being) set a franchise record for most goals in a playoff series with 9. The previous record was held by Gordie Howe who scored 8 in a seven game series - Johan did that in just four! There's no way Franzen can keep up this rate of 2+ goals per game, but he certainly has Dallas thinking of ways to contain him. It's that depth at forward that will take the pressure off Zetterberg and Datsyuk that can help make a difference in a series.

I've gone against the Stars in the first two rounds. Will I go against them again? Have I learned anything? The respective answers are yes and, well maybe, no.

Red Wings in 7.

Ladouceur fired!!!

Oh yeah and that other guy was fired too.

I awoke from my slumber this morning to call one of my colleagues on an unrelated topic without checking the old interweb. He informed me that Paul Maurice has been fired. Sorry, what?! Paul Maurice? The coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs? Yes, that Paul Maurice. MLSE sure has a strange sense of timing.

It's not a huge surprise that Maurice has been fired, but it's more the timing of it than anything that's so surprising. If you were firing the head coach, then why not do it at the end of the season or when the new GM is named later on this summer?

It's all very fishy and it makes me think that something else is up over at MLSE. Something like the hiring of the aforementioned new general manager. It makes sense to fire the head coach so the incoming general manager has the coach of his choice. While I'm not of the opinion that Maurice did a horrible job, it's probably the best move to release him and bring in someone new. He didn't have much of anything to work with, but he didn't appear to make the team he had any better. Essentially the job of any head coach is to get the most out of his players and while there wasn't really much to get out of the players he was given, he failed to push this team any further.

The new general manager won't be comfortable with an incumbent head coach so this is the best decision, but the timing is very strange. Why not name the GM and allow him to make the decision? Should we be all that surprised by anything MLSE does? Well, not really. They certainly stole a lot of the thunder of the Stanley Cup playoffs, especially on a slow news day with the conference finals not beginning until tomorrow.

Speaking of the conference finals, my thoughts and predictions are up next. Stay tuned.

The Price is wrong

How's that for a headline?

Carey Price doesn't look like that super composed goalie who shutout the Bruins in game 7. He looks more like a 20 year old rookie goaltender who is in unchartered territory. He allowed a couple of softies against the Flyers last night and despite a nice comeback attempt, the Habs fell to Philly. Jaroslav Halak took over and was solid in the third. Had it not been for a bone head five minute major penalty from Derian Hatcher (a guy who knows a thing or two about bonehead penalties) it wouldn't have even been close.
Montreal missed a great opportunity early on in the first when they had a full two minute 5 on 3 and couldn't muster a goal. It was a relatively unspectacular two man advantage altogether. Their powerplay clicked on the Hatcher major penalty and they need to build on that. After having the best PP in the NHL during the regular season, they've been a so-so 7 for 47 this season. That is of course counting the two they scored last night. Take that out of the picture and they were at 10.8 percent before that PP. They need their PP and a consistent Carey Price to win this series.
I say you go back to Price. You don't know what you're going to get but if he's on, he's proven he can win a game on his own. You need to restore his confidence and for their sake, hopefully he will be on his game again.

The Penguins aren't just a spectacular offensive team, but are playing a very sound defensive game right now and it's a huge reason why they won game 2. That combined with the solid play of Marc-Andre Fleury. After a rough start the series in which he surrendered a 3-0 lead to the Rangers, Fleury has played very well and his team has provided just enough offense. The 2-0 final score of game two is of course very deceiving. It was a 1-0 game for most of the game until the Adam Hall empty netter. Both games have been very close. The Penguins have a 2-0 series lead but have not run over the Rangers by any stretch of the imagination. New York should be pumped up playing at MSG and need a strong start, only this time have to hold on to their lead.

The Dallas Stars have taken a 2-0 series lead again on the road against a favoured team. Clearly, we've underestimated this team. Though Sergei Zubov wasn't the same player in game two that he has been over the past 10 years, he made a great pass to set up the third Stars goal. He adds a new dimension to the Stars blueline: a defenceman that can chip in and join the rush and create plenty of chances. He's going to get more comfortable as time goes on after being out for about three months. Brad Richards is really beginning to fit into their lineup and Mike Ribeiro is having the type of playoffs that actually warrant his huge contract extension. Brenden Morrow is a true leader and turning into one of the game's better power forwards.
On the other hand, the San Jose Sharks have been less than impressive. Despite Ron Wilson's claim, his captain definitely needs to be better and cannot hop over point shots. As Marleau was during the regular season, he's a minus player again in the post-season. They needed Evgeni Nabokov to stand on his head during the regular season to win games and he has been rather ordinary of late. It seems as though they can't win unless he's spectacular, which is asking a lot of a guy who started all but five games during the regular season.

Something is wrong with Jose Theodore. He hasn't been the same goalie against Detroit that he was during the regular season and in the first round against Minnesota. He was sick in game one and may have been feeling the effects of it in game two as well. Colorado has shown it's holes defensively and wasn't really in the game two very long. They are a much better team at home (27-12-2 vs. 17-19-5 during the regular season) and they will be welcoming some home cooking with open arms (or is it mouths?). They are banged up and could use a boost from Peter Forsberg should he return. But haven't we heard that a thousand times before?

After a light schedule of games (or game I should say) last night, we have three tonight. It feels like the first round again!

Tom Kostopoulopadalabososlapooulos?!?!?!?!

I think I misspelled his name. Oh right, it's Kostopoulos. What a game in Montreal. How about old Jimmy Dowd with the slapper that beat Price in the first? Talk about unsung heroes. Those two are about as unsung as they come. Of course, the most skilled players were the best players on the ice. Alexei Kovalev and the Kostitsyn's were fantastic last night.

Faceoffs late in games can be extremely crucial and it showed last night as Montreal's tying goal was scored right off the faceoff on a beauty wrister from Kovalev. The winner by Kostopoulos was scored off a broken play as a result from a faceoff. If the Flyers are practicing today John Stevens certainly has the team working on faceoffs (though it's unlikely they are practicing after a seven game series and only one day off in between, generally they have optional skates this time of year. In fact, I just confirmed that they did have an optional skate.)

Kovalev had an up and down series vs. Boston, but he was spectacular last night. He was easily the best player on the ice and when he's in a grove he's very dangerous. He's one of those players that is so fun to watch, even when he doesn't have the puck. He's always lurking in the shadows and seems like he might break out at any moment.

The Western semi-final kicked off with a bang. Detroit and Colorado played a crazy first period before settling down, as the Avs nearly climbed all the back from a 4-1 deficit. Jose Theodore was not at the top of his game and it may have been due to his apparent illness. Either way, he cannot be faulted for the second Detroit goal from Dan Cleary, who's wrister hit Theodore in the shoulder, bounced high in the air over top of him and slid in the net. That was about as fluky as they come.

Henrik Zetterberg's goal was magnificent as he made the Avs defence look silly. What did I say about Colorado's blueline?

It's nice to see Johan Franzen grab all the headlines after his two goal performance. He scored a quiet 27 goals and is a very solid defensive forward. He epitomizes the Red Wings (or their forwards at least) in many ways. He goes about his business quietly, scoring goals when counted on while playing a strong defensive game.

Chris Osgood was a bit shaky for parts of the third period, but the crowd got behind him and he made a game saving stop on Milan Hejduk who was wide open from point blank range. Colorado proved that no lead is safe against them as they have plenty of offensive ability up front to create several chances. Had Peter Forsberg not been a late scratch because of a groin injury, they may have stolen this one. Colorado hasn't had any problem winning games when Forsberg is in the lineup. It's never a question of Foppa's ability but his health instead. His return or absence could be the difference in this series.

Another two games on the sked tonight as the other two series' get started. No channel flipping either as one goes at 7, the other at 10. It's a shame last night's games had to overlap like that because both were fun to watch. Thank god for PVR's!