We begin in the east.
(1) Montreal vs. (8) Boston
This might be the start of something quite compelling brewing in Montreal. It's safe to say that no one and I mean NO ONE picked the Habs to finish first in the east. Many didn't even think they'd be in the playoff picture (including myself) let alone becoming a serious cup contender. With the league - the east especially - so wide open, the Habs must be taken seriously now.
The goaltending matchup in this series is very interesting. The young stud rookie goaltender without even a full season of NHL experience vs. the journeyman goaltender who took nearly a decade of playing in the minors before solidifying himself as a number one. A frighteningly calm goalie vs. a wound up ball of emotion. A fundamentally sound positional goalie vs. a flopping fish out of water.
Another glaring difference is the team that plays in front of them. One has the highest scoring team on offense, that plays a very wide open with a lot of skill and depth at forward, the other has a fundamentally sound defensive team without much scoring up front, that will bore you to death with the trap.
So can the Bruins contain the Habs? Not a chance. Defensively, the Bruins get a lot of help from their forwards, but not enough to contain Alexei Kovalev and Co. It seems funny to think of Kovalev as a one man wrecking crew, but that's what he's become for Montreal. It's all come together for Alexei this season in Montreal while playing with Tomas Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn. Those 3 have become the team's top line, while Saku Koivu has had a down season - and now gone for an indefinite period of time with a broken foot. The Habs will certainly miss their captain and the obvious inspiration he provides, but the Habs played well the last week of the season without him and earned the top spot in the east. Bryan Smolinski has stepped in his place and played well, but they need some scoring from the likes of Chris Higgins and Michael Ryder as well. Koivu and defenseman Mike Komisarek's injury status are a major concern for the team, especially in the later rounds as they will surely have to deal with more down the stretch.
Montreal has has proved they can find players to step up and contribute in a big way. Boston will put up a fight, but have had stretches of inconsistency and have a tendency to completely crumble on given days and surrender large amounts of goals. The real key for them is Carey Price and whether he's ready to carry the load. Will he follow in the footsteps of Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy as the next Canadien goaltender to step in as a rookie, without a full season under his belt and lead his team to a Stanley Cup? We will find out in two months. It's quite an impressive lineage nonetheless.
Claude Julien has done a great job in his first season in Boston, which should earn him several more, but Boston will once again bow out in the opening round.
Habs in 5.
(2) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Ottawa
What a difference a year makes. Last year Ottawa was primed for their run to the Stanley Cup finals after defeating the Penguins with relative ease in the first round. Sidney Crosby was the league's best player at the age of 19, but his team was not ready to compete. This year after an outstanding start, the Senators have fallen so far that winning two games in this series would surprise many. Crosby on the other hand has played well this season, but not quite as dominant as last season and missed 29 games with an ankle injury. His team was surprisingly good without him and his sidekick (though no longer a sidekick, now an equal) turned into an MVP candidate. For the Penguins sake, they need Malkin to continue to play as if he were the lone star of the show. Two star players, playing on two separate lines can be far too much for any team to handle especially the slumping Sens.
I have my suspicions that Crosby stayed out a bit longer than completely necessary to nurse his ankle and prime himself for a long playoff drive. Crosby has a winger in Hossa who can match (or at least come close to) his skill level. The two haven't had much time to play together, but there's no formula to working well with a fellow teammate and that chemistry can be found in an instant. They have two capable goalies in Conklin and Fleury. Although neither is playoff proven, they were both solid in sharing duty down the stretch and there's no better time to prove one's worth at this time of year.The same can't be said for Ottawa. When Pittsburgh is getting healthy, Ottawa is hurting. It's safe to say that neither Daniel Alfredsson nor Mike Fisher will be back at any point during this series. The league's second highest scoring team has suddenly forgotten how to score and without Alfie (their best player and team leader) and Fisher (their number 2 centre and best checker) it's hard to believe they will find that scoring anytime in the next week and a half. They have two completely incapable goalies. While we talk about goalies who can single handedly win you a game in hockey, Gerber and Emery can single handedly lose you a game. The team backed right into the playoffs and couldn't even clinch the playoffs with a win of their own, but had to rely on a loss of another. The Senators are a mess and will easily become the biggest disappointment of the NHL season after they lose in the first round.
Penguins in 5.
(3) Washington vs. (6) Philadelphia
How's that for a turnaround? The team's that finished second last and last respectively in the Eastern Conference are playing one another in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Very impressive and it shows how quickly things can turnaround in this league. Having drafted the league's top goal scorer in a decade as a consensus number one pick doesn't hurt, but the moves George McPhee made at the deadline certainly helped this team during their late run. Picking up Cristobal Huet for a second round pick and Sergei Fedorov for a not too special prospect were great moves even if they were rentals. That's not to mention their cast of 'supporting characters' including # 1 picks Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Mike Green. You can't deny the impact that the coaching turnaround had on this team. Bruce Boudreau has completely transformed this team. He has them believing in themselves and this team seems possessed to win games right now.
Philly on the other hand was not your typical last place finisher.
They had a core of young players who were either injured, threw in the towel after an insurmountable start or suffered from terrible sophomore slumps. Mike Richards emerged as one of the top two way forwards in the NHL and Jeff Carter continued his assent to the league's top scorers. Despite his up and down play, the acquisition of Martin Biron has given them a solid number one goalie. Grabbing Braydon Coburn from Atlanta for Alexei Zhitnik was highway robbery. Both were quality deals made by Paul Holmgren during last season that put Philly in a great position for the future and they are paying off now. The package they received for Peter Forsberg was tremendous and they had plenty of cap room to sign free agents (despite Briere's disappointing season). Philly misses Simon Gagne, their best winger who has been out for much of the season with a concussion. They have missed his speed and scoring touch throughout the season and that will show in the playoffs.Washington is on some kind of roll right now and Ovechkin seems unstoppable. Philadelphia is the second most penalized team in the NHL and with Washington clicking on all cylinders right now, special teams could play a huge factor. That's not to discount Philly's superb powerplay which was second in the league this season.
Huet hasn't proven himself in the playoffs but every game he has played for Washington has just like a playoff game with his team fighting for their lives. Biron's play of late has not been anywhere close to Huet's which could decide this series. Both teams have the ability to score and do so with the man advantage. As we all know, the goalie is a team's best penalty killer and that's just what this series might come down to...or if Ovechkin scores 20 goals. The goalie factor and the Ovechkin factor give the Caps the edge, though this series will be a lot closer than many believe.
Caps in 7.
(4) New Jersey vs. (5) New York
Whoever said Martin Brodeur was only as good as his defense was during the Devils 10 years of prominence was wrong. The defense was superb, there's no denying that, but considering what Brodeur has done this season with this group of no-name blueliners, it's time to start giving Brodeur an extra bit of credit. Paul Martin is their top defenseman. Seriously, Paul Martin. The rest of their blueline consists of Colin White, Andy Greene, Sheldon Brookbank, Karel Rachunek, Johnny Oduya, Vitaly Vishnevski and Bryce Salvador - I know that's eight but they have been in the rotation for most of the season. Now, do you think your average hockey fan can name even two of those players? Not an even close.
Preventing goals won't be the problem, scoring them will. Zach Parise can score a bit, but when he's your best option, you might be in trouble. Brian Gionta has seen a large decrease the past two seasons. He had 48 two years ago, dropped to 25 last year but played in just 62 games and fell to 22 this year while playing in all 82 contests. Patrik Elias at one point in his career appeared like he might be among the league's top scorers every year, but has fallen to the 20 goal area each of the last two seasons.
Surprisingly, the Rangers have not been much better offensively. Jaromir Jagr is now a shadow of himself from two years ago during his revival post-lockout season. Scott Gomez and Chris Drury haven't done a heck of a lot in the offensive department after signing obscene contracts in the offseason. Brendan Shanahan (like Jagr) is in the twilight of his career and though he can still contribute during a playoff run, cannot be counted on as a top line scorer anymore. Both teams are horrendous on the powerplay. Though there is a pretty intense rivaly between the two teams, this has the potential to be a very dull series due to the lack of offense.
One difference maker could be the Devils forecheck which has the potential to cause the Rangers and their defense fits. New York doesn't have a great puck moving defenseman and many of their d-men aren't particularly gifted in their own zone. This could provide the Devils with a share of scoring chances (for the sake of the casual fans viewing pleasure, let's hope so at least).
The forecheck - coupled with the Brodeur factor - provide the Devils with the edge in this series. Brodeur seemed to have tired during the playoffs the previous two years and apparently the goal was to give Martin more rest during the regular season. That never happened, but Brodeur's focus and desire can never be questioned. Even if he does tire later on, he should have enough gas left in the tank right now to get the Devils past New York.
Devils in 7.
The western conference predictions come tomorrow, stay tuned!
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